考研英语二阅读精读分析 疫情造成的经济损害

大师对疫情酿成的经济侵害展望立场分歧（Para. 1）↓

预判指标之一（银行的贷款丧失筹备金）6 月份较好（Para. 2）↓

与以前（4 月）比拟，是个较着变革（Para. 3）↓

银行预判立场变乐观的缘由（Para. 4）↓

但还不克不及彻底放松（Para. 5）↓

不少贷款有可能将酿成坏账，致使筹备金提高（Para. 6）↓

贷款丧失筹备金增高可能有三个后果（Para. 7）

02

原文精读阐发

Why bank bosses aresoundingmore optimistic about expected loan losses

为甚么银行老板彷佛对预期贷款丧失更乐观

【Para.1】

Gauginghow badly the coronavirus has damaged the economy is tricky. Pessimistsdiagnosea far worse recession than that which followed the financial crisis. Optimists predict a sharp recovery, pointing torobustbanks and housing markets.

权衡冠状病毒对经济的侵害有多紧张，是件辣手的事变。灰心主义者判定这将是一场紧张的经济阑珊，比金融危机致使的那次经济阑珊还要紧张。而乐观者则基于表示强劲的银行和房地产市场，展望经济将会快速苏醒。

sound v. if something or someone sounds good, bad, strange etc, that is how they seem to you when you hear about them or read about them 听起来，看起来，仿佛这句话没有依照正常的疑难句语序，题目中常常会如许。可以理解成作者给读者提出问题：Do you know why bank bosses are sounding more optimistic about expected loan losses?Gauge v. to judge how people feel about something or what they are likely to do 断定，果断〔人们的@感%1g15n%情或用%dlpx2%意@〕: [+ whether / what / how etc ]It is difficult to gauge what the other party's next move will be.很难断定对方下一步要做甚么。diagnose v. Identify the nature of the medical condition or the problem 肯定为/诊断为 The doctor diagnosed the illness as pneumonia.大夫诊断此病为肺炎。本句布局 ：Pessimists 主 diagnose 谓 a far worse recession 宾语 than that (比力状语，=than the recession) （which followed the financial crisis）定从，润饰 that.robust a. a robust system, organization etc is strong and not likely to have problems〔体系、组织等〕壮大的，安定的The formerly robust economy has begun to weaken.本来强劲的经济起头阑珊。 本句中的 pointing to…是如今分词做陪伴，意思是乐观主义者展望的时辰指出了/提到了表示强劲的银行和房地产市场，也就说，乐观者是基于表示强劲的银行和房地产市场而做出展望的。

【Para.2】

One way to form a view is to look at banks’loan-lossprovisions—the buffers they set aside to cover losses from loans they reckon might soondefault. By that standard it seems as if the patient is recovering much faster than first thought possible. On June 9th James Gorman, who runs Morgan Stanley, America’s sixth-largest bank, hinted that its loan-loss charges for the second quarter would be lower than in the first, because “the worst is behind us”. Gordon Smith, co-president of JPMorgan


Chase, the largest bank, said that delinquencyrates were “meaningfullybetter” than expected. Even some of Europe’s bankers seem less gloomy.

做出果断的一种法子就是检察银行的贷款丧失筹备金——银举动弥补他们认为可能很快会违约的贷款丧失而预留的缓冲资金。依照这个尺度，彷佛病人（即蒙受疫情重创的经济）规复得比最初想象的要快很多。6 月 9 日，掌管美国第六大银行摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·戈尔曼表示其第二季度的贷款丧失用度将低于第一季度，由于“最坏的已颠末去”。最大的银行摩根大通的结合总裁戈登·史姑娘说，债务拖欠率比预期的“较着更好”。乃至一些欧洲银里手彷佛也不那末灰心。

loan-loss provision np. 贷款丧失筹备金，即预留的用于应付贷款客户违约致使坏账的金钱default v. to fail to pay money that you owe at the right time 违约，拖欠delinquency n. A failure to pay an outstanding debt by the due date.拖负债务meaningfully adv. Having a recognizable function in a logical language or other sign system.〔逻辑上〕成心义的， 〔统计学上〕有显著意义的

【Para.3】

That is astarkchange from just a few weeks ago. In mid-April, as they reported their first-quarter results, America’s top fourlendersunveiled $24.1bn in provisions


for credit losses, a jump of $18.7bn compared with the first quarter of 2019. JPMorgan increased its provision by nearly $6.9bn, hitting in one quarter the level it had reached in six during the financial crisis. Europe’s lenders alsobookedbad news.

与几周前比拟，这是一个较着的变革。4 月中旬，在陈述第一季度事迹时，美国四大银行颁布了 241 亿美元的信贷丧失筹备金，比 2019 年第一季度增长了 187 亿美元。摩根大通将其筹备金增长了近 69 亿美元，在一个季度内到达了金融危机时代的 6 个季度的程度。欧洲的银行也陈述了坏动静。

stark a. unpleasantly clear and impossible to avoid明摆着的 The extreme poverty of the local people is in stark contrast to the wealth of the tourists.本地住民的极端贫苦和旅客的富饶形成为了光鲜的比拟。lender n. a person or organization that lends money to people on condition that they pay it back 放款人，贷方，银行credit loss np. 信贷丧失。和前面的 loan loss 同样意思book v. Make an official note of 记实 熟词僻义：名词做动词，但本句中转译为“陈述”The cop booked me and took me down to the station. 差人记了我的名字然后把我带到了


差人局。

【Para.4】

Why the moodswing? To predict losses, most banks enter economic forecasts into models. The prospects for 2020 are hardlyrosy, but it seems at least that economies are no longer in free fall. Employment rose in America in May. Factories in Asia have reopened. The lifting of lockdowns in the West has not yet caused a second wave of infections. Uncertainty forced banks to behyper-prudentin April. Now theworst-casescenario seemsoff the cards.

为甚么（银行的）情感会颠簸？为了展望信贷丧失，大大都银行会将经济展望数据输入阐发模子。2020 年的远景其实不乐观，但最少看起来经济再也不处于自由落体状况。蒲月份美国的就业率上升了。亚洲的工场已从新开张。西方消除封闭今朝尚未激发第二波传染。4 月份的时辰，不肯定性迫使银行在过分谨严，但如今最坏的环境彷佛已不存在了。

swing n. a noticeable change in opinions or emotions〔@定%9295j%见或情%ReSw7%感@的〕较着扭转: [+ to / towards / between etc ]a big swing towards right-wing ideology 向右翼意识形态的大变化。She suffers from mood swings .她常有较着的情感颠簸。本句省略了 is。整句是 Why is the mood swing?rosy a. seeming to offer hope of success or happiness 布满乐成但愿的，夸姣的a company that sees a rosy future for itself 认为营业远景一片光亮的公司hyper- 前缀 more than usual, especially too much 过度（的），过分（的）hypersensitive (=too sensitive)过分敏感的prudent a. sensible and careful, especially by trying to avoid unnecessary risks 明智谨严的，稳重的，谨慎的worst-case a. (of a projected development) characterized by the worst of the possible foreseeable circumstances 作最坏筹算的; 为最坏环境的; 为最晦气前提的in the worst-case scenario, coastal resorts and co妹妹unities face disaster.在最坏的环境下, 海滨度假胜地和本地住民将面对劫难。off the cards Not likely to happen, occur, or take place.不成能会产生。反义词：on the cards

【Para.5】

Relief may bepremature, though. Central-bank and government action has bought borrowers time. Chea state-backed loans are keeping firms and householdsafloat. No one knows how many borrowers will find themselves overburdened with debt when normal payment terms resume later in the year. That is especially true of consumer borrowers, up to a fifth of whom have asked forpayment holidays.

不外，彻底放松可能还为时过早。央行和当局的举措为告贷人博得了时候。便宜的国度支援贷款让企业和家庭得以保存下去。但当本年晚些时辰，规复正常了偿前提时，有几多告贷人会发明本身债务包袱太重？无人晓得谜底。对付消费贷款人来讲特别如斯，多达五分之一的告贷人请求暂缓还款。

premature a. done too early or too soon〔干事〕过早的，过快的; 仓皇的，轻率的; 不可熟的Any talk of a deal is premature.如今评论辩论协定还为时过早。afloat a. If a person, business, or country stays afloat or is kept afloat, they have just enough money to pay their debts and continue operating. (人、企业、国度等) 仅够还债保持下去的（afloat 根基意思就是漂泊着的，延申到贸易，就是指企业连结漂泊在水面上，也就是仅仅没淹死，仅仅保持不倒闭）Many small businesses are struggling to stay/keep afloat.很多小企业暗澹保持谋划。payment holiday n. a period when payments do not need to be made, especially when repaying a debt or a mortgage 暂缓还款

【Para.6】

If unemployment persists and companiesgo bust, as many economists expect, many more loans willsour. Roberto Frazzitta of Bain, a consultancy, predicts that 2021 will see a surge ofnon-performing loansas big as that in the financial crisis, if not bigger. This will becompoundedby accounting: as customers’ balance-sheets worsen, the probability of default will rise, and regulators will demand that this be reflected in loss provisions, even if loans are still performing. Some losses will eventually beabsorbedby government guarantees. But the European Banking Association still expects losses to eat up to 3.8 percentage points of European banks’ core tier-one capital ratio (the average buffer for banks in the region is 14.8%).

若是和很多经济学家所估计的那样，赋闲继续走高，企业停业，更多的贷款将会酿成坏账（即酿成不良贷款）。贝恩咨询公司的罗伯托·弗雷泽塔展望，2021 年不良贷款将会激增，其范围即使不比金融危机时更大，也差未几。管帐核算将使环境更糟: 跟着客户资产欠债表变糟，其违约几率将上升，羁系者将请求银行在其丧失筹备金中表现这一点，即使该笔贷款仍在还款中。一些丧失终极会被当局担保金所消化。但欧洲银行业协会仍估计吃亏将使欧洲银行焦点一级本钱率削减 3.8 个百分点(欧洲银行的均匀防护缓冲本钱率为 14.8%)。

go bust vp. a business that goes bust cannot continue operating 买卖失败，停业，倒闭The discovery of oil ushered in an era of employment and prosperity.煤油的发明创始了一个就业和繁华的新期间。sour v. make or become unpleasant, bad, or difficult 使）变得不舒畅; （使）变坏; （使）变得坚苦As time went by, their marriage soured.跟着韶光的流逝，他们的婚姻瓜葛恶化了。non-performing loan np. a loan that is in default or close to being in default.不良贷款，不如约贷款compound v. to make a bad action worse by doing more bad things 加重，恶化absorb v. 本义是不良贷款被当局包管金所吸取，也就是用当局包管金来了偿不良贷款，当局兜底。是以翻译为“被当局担保金所消化”。【Para.7】

Higher provisions could have three consequences, on both sides of the Atlantic. It may lead investors to question banks’ ability to pay dividends (Europe’s have suspended them, but America’s still dole them out). It may prompt banks to refine their standard loss-prediction models by using morealternativedata, says Ian Shipley of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. And it may lead to calls for weaker lenders to consolidate, in order to improve theirresilience. That would be a hard pill to swallow, but could prove a handy cure.

对大西洋两岸（即美欧两边）来讲，更高的贷款丧失筹备金可能有三个后果。这可能会致使投资者质疑银行付出股息的能力(欧洲银行已暂停发放股息，但美国银行仍在发放股息)。咨询公司奥利弗·怀曼(Oliver Wyman)的伊恩·希普利(Ian Shipley)暗示，这可能会促使银行经由过程利用更多很是规数据来使其尺度丧失展望模子更切确。这也可能会致使（有人会）号令气力较弱的银行举行整合，以提高它们的（危害）应答能力。那将是一颗难如下咽的药丸（即银行整合比力难施行），但可能被证明是一种便利的解决法子。

alternative a. of or relating to behaviour that is considere unconventional and is typically seen as a challenge to traditional norms 举动独树一帜的（尤指对传统准则组成挑战的不从风俗举动）, 另类的，很是规的resilience n. the ability to become strong, happy, or successful again after a difficult situation or event 规复力，回复复兴力; 顺应力；抵抗力People showed remarkable resilience during the war.战役时代人们表示得出格顽强。